It is shaping up to be another difficult year for India’s tourism industry. Foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) have struggled in the first nine months of the year and may once again fall short of pre-pandemic levels. The reasons are familiar—high costs compared with peer destinations, inadequate infrastructure, and lingering concerns around safety and security.
This year, however, additional factors have kept—or are expected to keep—foreign tourist numbers subdued. First, a sharp fall in arrivals from Bangladesh, a key source market, following political instability there. Second, the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, earlier this year. Third, disruptions in flight operations due to IndiGo cancellations during the peak travel month of December.
All this comes at a time when several Southeast Asian countries, often cheaper and more tourist-friendly, have seen strong growth in foreign tourist numbers.
Potential paused
India recorded a 12% decline in foreign tourist arrivals in the first nine months of the year (January-September), compared to the previous year. The number stood at 6.18 million, according to the latest data shared in the Lok Sabha earlier this month.
Usually, foreign tourist arrivals account for 30% of the arrivals in the last quarter, buoyed by the holiday and vacation season. If these past trends are anything to go by, the year may end with 8.7-8.8 million foreign tourist arrivals. This will be lower than nearly 10 million arrivals in 2024 and the pre-pandemic levels of10.9 million in 2019.
During the pandemic, arrivals collapsed 74.9% in 2020 and then 44.4% more in 2021. The numbers shot up by 321.5% in 2022 and 47.9% in 2023, making a significant recovery but failing to reach pre-pandemic levels. The growth continued, though it was only moderate at 4.5%—revealing signs of weakness in India’s appeal to foreign tourists even as the pandemic was long over, which was also visible in 2025 numbers.
Need to diversify
India’s foreign tourist base remains highly concentrated. Data from previous years shows that just three countries—the US, Bangladesh and the UK—account for around 45% of total arrivals.
In 2019, Bangladesh was the single largest source, contributing 23.6% of all FTAs. Its share remained above 20% consistently from 2017, barring the pandemic years, until 2023.
So, naturally, when the political crisis hit Bangladesh in mid 2024, tourist arrivals in India took a hit. Bangladesh’s share declined 17.6%. While a detailed country-wise break-up is not available for 2025, data available in quarterly tourism statistics reports do not show Bangladesh in the top five source countries in January-March. It did make it to the top five list for April-June, but the share was only 5.7%.
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