India’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from Qatar plunged 93% sequentially in March to about 56,000 tonnes after an attack on QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan plant, exposing the country’s dependence on a single supplier and forcing a costly scramble for alternative supplies.
Ship-tracking firm Kpler data showed imports from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also halved to 130,000 tonnes, further tightening supplies. India turned to the spot market to bridge the gap, with the US, Oman and Nigeria emerging as key suppliers. Their exports to India rose to 338,869 tonnes (up 371%), 532,202 tonnes (up 66%) and 327,745 tonnes (up 62%), respectively, from 71,032 tonnes, 300,529 tonnes and 201,757 tonnes in February.
Angola has also emerged as another alternative, supplying 208,058 tonnes of LNG, compared to 141,449 tonnes in February. Mint earlier reported that Indian state-run oil and gas marketing companies are in talks with Angola’s state-owned energy major Sonangol for term contracts for sourcing liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and LNG. Algeria, Australia, and Russia are also being explored as possible sources by Indian energy companies.
The shift, however, comes at a cost. The benchmark Japan Korea Marker (JKM) price in Asia’s spot market averaged $20 per million metric British thermal units (MMBtu) through March, its highest level since January 2023, and currently stands at $20.53/MMBtu.
“A large chunk of our imports comes from Qatar. Efforts for diversification from other geographies would be beneficial over the long run. Also, globally, it is not an issue of availability of LNG, rather, the pricing is an issue. Prices are very high,” said Prashant Vasisht, senior vice president and co-group head, corporate ratings, ICRA Ltd.
India imports about 50% of its natural gas needs, with most supplies coming from West Asia, especially Qatar. Much of the domestic output is directed towards city gas distribution (CGD), including piped natural gas (PNG) for cooking and compressed natural gas (CNG) for transport, leaving sectors such as fertilizers, steel and power dependent on imports.
Domestic strain
The supply shock is already rippling through the domestic market. Following QatarEnergy’s force majeure after the Ras Laffan plant was hit, Petronet has announced force majeure for its consumers in India, and the Centre has cut supplies to industries and fertilizer plants to prioritize domestic consumers.
In January, Qatar was India’s largest supplier with 1 million tonnes of natural gas, followed by the UAE at 402,843 tonnes. India imported about 27 million tonnes of LNG in FY25, worth $14.9 billion.
Vasisht, however, noted that it would take a longer time period to diversify and make up for the shortfall from Qatar.
Beyond the immediate disruption, damage to energy infrastructure in West Asia could take months, if not years, to repair, keeping a significant portion of global supplies constrained.
QatarEnergy chief executive officer (CEO) Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi last month said missile attacks on the Ras Laffan plant reduced Qatar’s LNG export capacity by 17% and caused an estimated loss of $20 billion in annual revenue. Extensive damage to our production facilities will take up to five years to repair and will compel us to declare long-term force majeure, he said, which would impact several buyers of Qatari gas.
The conflict could also delay new liquefaction capacity. A 13 March report by the International Energy Agency noted that the start-up of QatarEnergy’s North Field East expansion project is likely to be pushed back from its earlier end-2026 target, although the extent of the delay remains uncertain and depends on the duration of the conflict.
The disruption risks slowing India’s efforts to raise the share of natural gas in its energy mix to 15% by 2030 from about 6% currently, a target that has already seen slower-than-expected progress.
